Imagine a future, a hundred years from now, where millions of people tune in every February not to watch the Super Bowl, but to view the annual world flag football championship. A sport once associated with family gatherings, flag football is now being described as “soaring,” “exploding,” and “skyrocketing in popularity” nationwide by mainstream media. There’s some evidence to support these claims: According to the NFL’s official flag football program, since 2015, the number of children aged 6 to 12 participating in flag football has increased by 38%, surpassing 1.5 million. In my recent book, “Emerging Sports as Social Movements,” I investigate nontraditional sports like flag football and disc golf. One significant insight is that despite impressive headlines, trendy sports often do not achieve widespread longevity. While some sports like pickleball maintain broad, lasting popularity, others such as adventure racing, paintball, and wakeboarding remain niche activities. Flag football, however, is experiencing some promising trends, although there are challenges that could limit its growth. Unlike tackle football, flag football is currently gaining attention for being a non-contact sport. Instead of tackling, players remove one of the two flags from a ball carrier’s hips. While there are risks of injury, flag football results in significantly fewer head injuries compared to tackle football, which is appealing to parents concerned about brain injuries. Although obscurity can limit emerging sports, it may not be an issue for flag football.
In October 2023, the International Olympic Committee announced that flag football will be included in the Summer Games in Los Angeles in 2028. It is uncertain if active NFL players will be eligible, but if they are, and a U.S. “Dream Team” is formed, similar to the 1992 Olympic men’s basketball team with stars like Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Magic Johnson, flag football could capture the attention of millions of casual sports enthusiasts in 2028. The Olympic version of flag football is played at a fast pace, with shorter games on 50-yard fields with 10-yard end zones, involving five players per team over two 20-minute halves. This format made its debut at the 2022 World Games in Birmingham, Alabama, where the U.S. men secured the gold medal, and the women’s team won silver. Surprisingly, the NFL is supportive of flag football’s growth.
In 2021, the NFL and Nike pledged 5 million dollars in equipment for high school flag football teams across the U.S. The NFL’s official flag football program comprises more than 1,600 local leagues, supported by top brands like Visa, Gatorade, and Subway. Most NFL teams promote flag football at the grassroots level with summer camps, clinics, and regional tournaments. During last year’s Super Bowl, a commercial featuring Mexican quarterback Diana Flores evading NFL players and celebrities as they tried to grab her flag was watched by approximately 115 million viewers. On February 4, 2024, the Pro Bowl – the NFL’s annual all-star showcase – replaced tackle football for the second consecutive year with a 7-on-7 flag football game broadcast on ESPN and ABC and streamed on ESPN+. Furthermore, the league hosted the International NFL Flag Championships as part of the Pro Bowl Games, welcoming young athletes from 12 countries on February 2-3. Despite flag football’s current popularity, it remains to be seen whether this trend represents a long-term rise in participation. According to data from the National Federation of High Schools, 21,980 students played high school flag football in 2023, compared to roughly 1 million students – 47 times more – participating in tackle football that same year.
Track and field, basketball, and soccer also boast around 1 million participants each. Interest in flag football appears to be localized, with about 80% of high school players residing in just three states: Florida, Georgia, and New York. Almost all of the growth in high school flag football participation since 2007 has been among girls. According to a national sports participation survey, while the number of casual flag football players has risen, core participation has declined. “Casual players” are those who play less than 50 times annually, whereas “core players” play 50 or more times per year. Between 2016 and 2022, the share of casual players grew by 41%, while core participation dropped by 13%. For lasting growth, nontraditional sports need to engage both core and casual players. While investments and marketing can initially draw new players, grassroots initiatives are essential to retain them. Pickleball serves as an example, having gained cultural prominence with high-profile athletes like LeBron James investing in the professional circuit and celebrity players capturing headlines. The sport has also experienced significant development in its social and physical infrastructure, resulting in more than double casual and core participation between 2016 and 2022. Ultimately, the future of flag football may depend on public attitudes toward the safety of tackle football.
Over recent years, studies have linked repeated head impacts to serious brain injuries such as chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE. Attempts to enhance safety in tackle football for young athletes have, however, faced resistance from families, fans, and organizers, particularly in regions where the sport is culturally cherished. New rules for safeguarding NFL players have even entered mainstream political discourse. For instance, in 2019, former President Donald Trump criticized the NFL’s concussion protocols as “soft” and claimed safety measures were “ruining the game,” while Democratic state lawmakers in New York, Illinois, and California proposed bills to ban tackle football for children under 12, often suggesting flag football as an alternative. None of these bills have been passed. Some research suggests Democrats are more likely than Republicans to trust concussion science and pay more attention to related news. As opinions on the risks associated with tackle football become politically divided, views on the advantages of flag football may follow a similar pattern. In a study I conducted on sports popularity in 207 U.S. areas, flag football was found to be more favored in regions inclined to vote Democratic, while tackle football held more sway in Republican-leaning areas.